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I have to question this "clearance rate" stat. You should know by now that hard numbers are thrown around with no real context.

RAINN nhas been throwing out this bogus stat that "only 5 of 1000 rapists are in prison." But where do they get it from?

They start with the National Crime Victimization Survey. One problem is that the estimates of unreported rapes in the NCVS come from small numbers of responses. In the 2010 NCVS, that number is <100:

“While the change in the rape or sexual assault rate from 2009 to 2010 is significantly different at the 90%-confidence level, care should be taken in interpreting this change because the estimates of rape/sexual assault are based on a small number of cases reported to the survey. Therefore, small absolute changes and fluctuations in the rates of victimization can result in large year-to-year percentage change estimates. For 2010, the estimate of rape or sexual assault is based on 57 unweighted cases compared to 36 unweighted cases in 2009. The measurement of rape or sexual assault represents one of the most serious challenges in the field of victimization research."

In 2010, there were 57 'unreported cases' out of sample size of nearly 71000 people: In 2010, 40974 households and 73283 individuals age 12 and older were interviewed for the NCVS.

The NCVS covers combines sexual assaults, rapes, AND ATTEMPTS. Sexual assault is defined as "A wide range of victimizations, separate from rape or attempted rape. These crimes include attacks or attempted attacks generally involving unwanted sexual contact between victim and offender. Sexual assaults may or may not involve force and include such things as grabbing or fondling. Sexual assault also includes verbal threats." Rape is defined as “Forced sexual intercourse including both psychological coercion and physical force. Forced sexual intercourse means vaginal, anal, or oral penetration by the offender(s). This category also includes incidents where the penetration is from a foreign object, such as a bottle. Includes attempted rape, male and female victims, and both heterosexual and same sex rape. Attempted rape includes verbal threats of rape.” Because the definition of attempt is not adequately defined by the NCVS, it is open to interpretation. We live in a culture where looking at a woman too long is "stare rape."

RAINN considers every case in the estimate rape even though most have never been screened for validity. This is the same tactic used by John Walsh in the 1980s to claim "stereotypical kidnappings" were in the millions, not less than 100.

RAINN comes from the viewpoint every report must me true, without taking into account that people can lie about being crime victims, or that staring at someoneone or being asked out by an unattractive male, or regretting sleeping with a jerk is not exactly equivalent to rape.

Every screening process to endure there was an actual rape is seen as a complete and utter failure to prosecute a rape, potential false allegation be damned.

I've already dissected this silly notion that all claimed rapes are real, but maybe since more people read your stuff than mine, you could write an independent report that backs up what I've already stated here.

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